Over the years, I’ve written and reprinted many articles for ABCO Technology’s Facebook page. Today I want to reprint and give special credit to Tiernan Ray who writes for Barron’s magazine. This article about quantum computing is published with an investment perspective, however readers interested in information technology careers will grasp the job possibilities represented in this brilliant article written by Tiernan Ray.
Technology Trader
Getting Your Mind Around Quantum Computing
Is five years beyond your investment horizon? If so, ignore what I’m about to say: In five years, we will have practical quantum computers, long the holy grail of computer scientists.
That prediction comes from Microsoft (ticker: MSFT), which is pursuing novel avenues to build a computer that operates on the strange quantum mechanical properties of subatomic particles. Such computers may solve previously intractable problems in information technology.
Even if quantum computing lies outside your portfolio considerations, there are implications worth pondering. Quantum computers are already being “simulated” by Microsoft, meaning that some of their basic operations are being mimicked on plain old microprocessors and memory chips.
As quantum computing grows nearer, and as programmers eager to learn about it explore it through mimicry, it could ripple through technology. The race for innovative chips, software, and cloud computing could be affected. Companies that shoulder the risk and reward include chip makers Intel (INTC), Nvidia (NVDA), and Micron Technology (MU), and cloud-computing operators such as Microsoft, with its Azure cloud service; Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google; and Amazon.com (AMZN).
QUANTUM COMPUTERS EXPLOIT nonlinear aspects of quantum particles such as “entanglement” and “superposition,” in which particles exist in not one but several states simultaneously. That makes possible computations in parallel, rather than the traditional one-by-one processing of classical computing. Nobel physicist Richard Feynman helped propel the field in a series of 1981 lectures, when he proposed a computer built using individual atoms. Because atoms have “measurable physical attributes,” known as “spin,” said Feynman, digital ones and zeros could be represented, or encoded, in them. Later, scientists broadened the concept. Instead of ones and zeros at a subatomic level, the qualities of entanglement and superposition could give quantum computers the ability to dramatically multiply the work that can be done in a given amount of time.
Making quantum computing practical has taken decades of fundamental research. A turning point came in 2012, Microsoft’s quantum team leader, Todd Holmdahl, told Barron’s last week. That was the year a team that included Leo Kouwenhoven, principal researcher on Microsoft’s quantum team, found evidence of the Majorana fermion. The Majorana is a particle with the property of being both matter and antimatter at the same time. Prior to that, its existence had only been hypothesized.
Kouwenhoven and the Microsoft team have gained greater control of the Majorana since then, says Holmdahl. Today, they are using it as a storage medium to manipulate a qubit, the fundamental unit of information in a quantum computer.
The Microsoft approach has its detractors, but Holmdahl and his colleague, physicist Julie Love, who heads business development, believe that the company will end up with the best qubits, that is, those with the lowest error rates. Minimizing errors means that the eventual Microsoft quantum computer should involve a far simpler design than rivals, and one that’s more scalable and practical.
The eventual quantum machine could offer breakthroughs in computationally intense fields, such as the chemistry of heavy metals. Artificial intelligence could be dramatically sped up.
OUTSIDE OF MICROSOFT, MANY FIRMS, including Alphabet, IBM (IBM), and various start-ups, are actively working on the technology, and programmers increasingly want to simulate the computers before they’re available commercially. That could further boost demand for DRAM memory chips. To simulate a relatively simple quantum computer involving just 40 qubits requires 16 trillion bytes of DRAM, a thousand times as much as the average laptop. That’s nice for Micron Technology (MU), which makes such components, along with Samsung Electronics (005930KS) and SK Hynix (000600.Korea).
Such simulations should fuel demand for Azure and other cloud-computing providers. After all, it’s much easier to roll out trillions of bits of DRAM if you’re Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, or Amazon AWS than it is for the average shop to buy tons of memory chips for laptops. Moreover, the algorithms to simulate quantum computing are still being theorized and tested. By rolling out new software, Microsoft and its cloud rivals can make the case that their services are perfect for learning about the new technology.
Quantum simulation may also put a strain on today’s chips. After all, current chips were first developed 60 years ago for processing simple bits, not for qubits with their multiple simultaneous states Traditional processors that manipulate integer or floating-point arithmetic might suffer by comparison to novel designs based on other principles.
The chip industry is already undergoing great change, and industry veterans are reinventing themselves with new start-ups. One is Ampere Computing, led by former Intel software executive Renee James. While James declined to describethe design of her new chips, she says some will be built to handle tasks such as artificial intelligence. Quantum could fuel such specialization, if there is enough demand to run the new emerging algorithms. While Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) are both seeing a renaissance for their graphics chips, they may have to prepare for computers with very different requirements.
And what of Microsoft? Its quantum efforts have to be reckoned with. The effort may be the most promising development at the company since Satya Nadella became CEO four years ago. Regardless of whether Microsoft makes it across the finish line before others, the fact that it is competing in the race is encouraging for those rooting for the company.
Related: Microsoft: We Have the Qubits You Want
Getting Your Mind Around Quantum Computing
TIERNAN RAY can be reached at: tiernan.ray@barrons.com
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